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The Birthday puzzle

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Quote by Liz


*twirls hair with a pencil*


That is such a sexy gesture, you know.
Quote by Liz
Give us a lesson then? smile

If the answer to the problem is 23, then why does doubling that figure not increase the probability to 100 percent?

*twirls hair with a pencil*


It's pretty clear (I think) that to have a probability of 1 (or 100%), i.e., to make it absolutely certain that two people will share a birthday, then you need 367 people (invoke the Pigeonhole Principle).

The relationship is quite a complex one, I imagine, and certainly not linear, as you're conjecture would imply. It's actually not a million miles away from the topic of my masters dissertation (look up the Cocktail Party Problem for a flavour of it). Essentially, you can view it as a huge network, and as the number of people increases, the number of connections increases even more quickly, so the probability of witnessing the particular kind of connection you're looking for increases quickly, too.
Quote by Liz


Give us a lesson then? smile

If the answer to the problem is 23, then why does doubling that figure not increase the probability to 100 percent?

*twirls hair with a pencil*


I don't know. My friend explained it to me and it was double Dutch. I believe as you increase the size of the group of people the odds decrease exponentially, so with 46 people there's better than a 9:1 chance that two people will match. What I can't get my head round is why this works. It's so counter-intuitive.

A First Class Service Ch.5

A steamy lesbian three way

Hi I'm Angeldust my birthday id July 3rd
jasmine here was born on 21 of jan
Hi I'm Will, and my birthday is February 19th, the same day as the Duke of York, although I am much better looking.
Luke D, Feb 26 was the day they decided once calendars were invented, but that is just an estimate.
hello I'm Chris and my birthday is June 29th
Howdy all, I'm Henry and birthday is January 15th
Quote by DanielleX
So, the other day I was talking to my friend and she said, "Danny, how many people do you need to get in a room to have more than a 50-50 chance that two people will share a birthday?"

I was like, "That's a bit random! I don't know, top of my head, 366."

"No!"

"OK, I don't know Ashlie, tell me."

"Twenty three."

"Twenty three!" Bullshit!"

Apparently, it's 23. I don't know how it can be 23, and even when she explained it, I didn't get it. So, I want to test this.


This is how this will work. We'll call this thread our 'room.' Every time someone comes in, you have to introduce yourself with your username and give your date of birth (not the year, I don't need to know how old you are).

Let's get this running for a while and then check the results. I'm sceptical about this, but I kind of want it to work. Please don't 'monitor' the thread and wait for a match, as that will spoil it.

I'll start. My name is DanielleX. My date of birth is 15th March.



You can tell your friend that you don't necessarily have to have 23 people in order to find a matching set of birthdays. I couldn't believe my eyes when I read your post. You may not believe this but it is the truth. I'm HopefullAuthor and my birthday is March 15. By the way Danielle, HAPPY belated birthday. I hope you had a wonderful day.
If you're feeling bored during this Covid-19 epidemic I’d like to suggest
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I don't think I've seen anyone on Feb 9th yet...here is me throwing that out there.
Insert something witty here.
Quote by Willyc2licu
Hi I'm Will, and my birthday is February 19th, the same day as the Duke of York, although I am much better looking.


But do you have 10000 men?
Simply_me may 12th
Hi I am Strangerlyd - 5 May
Hello, I'm Racy - October 26
 Kissing your lips while straddling your lap. 
For an absolute guarantee 100% of the time, all you need to do is get 367 people in the same room.

░P░U░S░S░Y░ ░I░N░ ░B░I░O░


Essie. 15 January