Red State Murder Rate is 23% Higher than Blue States... Why?

Rural America

https://fox17.com/news/local/he-will-get-drunk-and-shoot-me-victim-warned-court-before-marion-county-murder-suicide

More guns! More high school dropouts! Bang! Bang!

Quote by ElCoco

America’s cities have become safer over the last few years.

And you actually believe that?

Quote by ElCoco

It helps when you follow the Science.

America’s cities have become safer over the last few years.

I would be curious to see if they're still growing safer. This article is from 2013. That's pre-MAGA and pre-Trump's presidency. It's also pre-Covid (obviously). All of these things had big impacts on the way people deal with each other.

Quote by ElCoco

Then do your research and let us know what you've found.

Thank you for the assignment, but I'm already ahead of you. Nobody followed up on this study. That's why I said I was curious rather than posting more information.

Quote by ElCoco

So the study stands unless following the science isn't important.

The study is true for 2013. That's what the science says.

The thread is about murder rate, not crime rate.

Statistics show that red states are more murderous.

Quote by ElCoco

And the murder rate is higher in Democratically controlled cities.

Republicans can't win elections in the economic centers of the country.

Thank goodness, can't have welfare handouts everywhere.

Quote by ElCoco

Your posts make me think you don't think it's true now. If that's true, what are the reasons you think it's not valid now?

Quote by AngelEthics

I would be curious to see if they're still growing safer. This article is from 2013. That's pre-MAGA and pre-Trump's presidency. It's also pre-Covid (obviously). All of these things had big impacts on the way people deal with each other.

Quote by ElCoco

And the murder rate is higher in Democratically controlled cities.

...and states with Republican governors and GOP controlled state houses.

Quote by Magical_felix

The Two-Decade Red State Murder Problem

• Over this 21-year span, this Red State murder gap has steadily widened from a low of 9% more per capita red state murders in 2003 and 2004 to 44% more per capita red state murders in 2019, before settling back to 43% in 2020.

• Altogether, the per capita Red State murder rate was 23% higher than the Blue State murder rate when all 21 years were combined.

I apologize because I'm about to get really fucking nerdy over minor shit:

Statistics reported like this can be a little misleading. The fact is, we have to take into account population density - which happens to be significantly lower in many 'red-states.' That is, 1 murder per capita, counts for a lot less when your population is nearer to five million than five hundred thousand because there are more 'capitas' to distribute that murder between. For example, let's say I live in a state by myself and murder someone (who wasn't counted in the last census, some hobo drifter, perhaps) - that's a 100% murder per capita rate - everyone in the state is a murderer, because that murderer is me. If there are two people in my state, then the rate drops to 50% per capita, same number of murders - half as much as the 1 person state. The more people there are in a state, the less each individual murder will count. It doesn't negate the overall trend, but it can unfairly exaggerate differences.

Quote by Just_A_Guy_You_Know

I apologize because I'm about to get really fucking nerdy over minor shit:

Statistics reported like this can be a little misleading. The fact is, we have to take into account population density - which happens to be significantly lower in many 'red-states.' That is, 1 murder per capita, counts for a lot less when your population is nearer to five million than five hundred thousand because there are more 'capitas' to distribute that murder between. For example, let's say I live in a state by myself and murder someone (who wasn't counted in the last census, some hobo drifter, perhaps) - that's a 100% murder per capita rate - everyone in the state is a murderer, because that murderer is me. If there are two people in my state, then the rate drops to 50% per capita, same number of murders - half as much as the 1 person state. The more people there are in a state, the less each individual murder will count. It doesn't negate the overall trend, but it can unfairly exaggerate differences.

You're a bright guy but what are you on about?

Small town, 100 people, 2 murders = 2% murder rate

Bigger town, 1000 people 15 murders = 1.5% murder rate.

Hence, more likely to get murdered in the small town even though one is 2 murders and another is 15.

Plus there are many many... many more small towns than big ones.

This is the problem with quantitative data analysis.

In actuality if I was doing this study I’d source the data of apprehended criminals and their crimes and then use qualitative evidence to extrapolate from there.

Per capita results don’t really take into account people living outside of the formal institutions which is most people affected by crime. We can make baseline assumptions but they wouldn’t be academically sound and I wouldn’t apply change on that basis.

Quote by Magical_felix

The Two-Decade Red State Murder Problem

Full article here: https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-two-decade-red-state-murder-problem

• The murder rate in the 25 states that voted for Donald Trump has exceeded the murder rate in the 25 states that voted for Joe Biden in every year from 2000 to 2020.

• Over this 21-year span, this Red State murder gap has steadily widened from a low of 9% more per capita red state murders in 2003 and 2004 to 44% more per capita red state murders in 2019, before settling back to 43% in 2020.

• Altogether, the per capita Red State murder rate was 23% higher than the Blue State murder rate when all 21 years were combined.

• If Blue State murder rates were as high as Red State murder rates, Biden-voting states would have suffered over 45,000 more murders between 2000 and 2020.

• Even when murders in the largest cities in red states are removed, overall murder rates in Trump-voting states were 12% higher than Biden-voting states across this 21-year period and were higher in 18 of the 21 years observed.

Why is this happening?

Red states tend to have looser gun laws so I guess they are able to protect themselves from murder... That's the republican theory right?

Republicans also say they are the party of law and order and it is blue states that are crime infested. Why is there so much more murder in red states?

Red states tend to be more religious too...

Why? Why are red states so much more dangerous?

If you are going to divide it by conservatives and liberals, I think you have to look at what are their trigger mechanisms. Over the years, I have known people on both sides and, by far, conservatives seem to have more things that upset them.

Whether it's about abortion, homosexual marriage, education, gun control, feminism, taxes, jobs, crime, free speech, religion and who knows what else. Everything seems to be a fight for them even if none of these things are problems in their own lives. Things can only get better as soon as everyone does what they tell them to do. They can't just live their life and let everyone else live theirs. They want control. If they can't get it by law, then they'll get it by gun, because, you know, activist judges.

Quote by ElCoco

America’s cities have become safer over the last few years.

So now you're taking a 180, with hip gyrations and sass, and saying that democratic run cities are safer than republican ran rural areas?

Quote by Ironic

Yes, technical details matter.

Technically, republican controlled states have a higher murder rate.

Why do you think that is?

There are more guns in those red states is the simple and obvious answer.

Quote by Ensorceled

There are more guns in those red states is the simple and obvious answer.

You're getting much too close to the point.

gestures broadly at conservatives

You have two factors at play here. One is gun access and attitude towards gun violence.

The other is social programs and services remarkably lower crime rates. Republicans strip these things, so states they control have more desperate people who also have access to guns. Put those two together and now your kids are more likely to be killed by gun violence than any other reason.

Quote by RowanThorn

gestures broadly at conservatives

You have two factors at play here. One is gun access and attitude towards gun violence.

The other is social programs and services remarkably lower crime rates. Republicans strip these things, so states they control have more desperate people who also have access to guns. Put those two together and now your kids are more likely to be killed by gun violence than any other reason.

Or do do the killing.

Quote by Justlooking51

Yanno what's funny about your source material. It, like the previous attempt by the vacuous Governor of California to say the same thing, don't actually provide any real data.

Yeah, there's a cute map, and even a graph of sorts.

But I live in Ohio, one of those so called "red states". Tamir Rice: you remember that "racist cop event"? Mama made a cool 7 mil off that. Anyways, the kid was playing gangster with a gun his mamma gave him in a killing ground in a really bad part of Cleveland (where I lived for a while). So bad, they closed that "teen center" because of violence there for a couple years before that event. Cleveland, a blue city so blue they elected an avowed socialist mayor (Kucinich) who promptly drove them bankrupt. Blue for decades.

There are 8 large cities in Ohio. All run by Democrats, for decades. Murder rates there are climbing.

Yes, there are occasional outliers: the Mormon murders in Kirkland. The kid who grew up down the block from my wife was run over by his girlfriend (in Akron, so blue).

The point is, when ever I see this kind of broad brush attempt to fob blame off on Republicans for a problem created by the Democrats and their "Great Society" I NEVER see any effort to prove it's that the "State Crime Rate" is not relatively focused within the cities.

What I mean is there are 11 million people in Ohio, about a quarter of them in the big cities, and another quarter in the urban sprawl.

And I've never seen any effort to focus on where the problems are.

Me? I live in a small town in the exurbs. Population about 5K. One violent death since I've been here: a traffic accident and it wasn't even an hit an run. Just some old dude who didn't make it across the street fast enough when he was jaywalking. The town was devastated for a while, he'd been the only barber here for decades, but he was, in the end, at fault.

Just a few miles away, on the other side of the border/buffer of a semi-suburban industrial park, there seems to be a murder a week. And that, of course, is in the City of Akron, which has been run by Democrats since Johnson was President.

So until I see some real data, it's just mindless propaganda, the stuff of stalags and reprogramming camps.
Ain't nobody got time for that.

Ok but why are you statistically more likely to be murdered in a red state?

Quote by Justlooking51

I'm not, if I don't live in a blue county within that red state. Or a blue city within that red county.

If you don't understand how the Governmental systems work together; don't work together; overlap and compete with each other in this country, I don't understand why you comment on them so much.

Just because the CDC is too lazy, too stupid, and too politically biased to assemble the statistics in a meaningful way doesn't mean the truth can't be prised out of them.

For example: how many murders does an illegal immigrant in NYC have to commit before even one is counted? A crime is not committed (statistically) if it isn't charged.

Sure, that's fraud, but that fraud is not a crime if it isn't charged, either.

Ok but the numbers show that there is a higher murder rate in Republican ran states so why are you statistically more likely to be murdered in a red state?

Quote by PrincessC

This is the problem with quantitative data analysis.

In actuality if I was doing this study I’d source the data of apprehended criminals and their crimes and then use qualitative evidence to extrapolate from there.

Per capita results don’t really take into account people living outside of the formal institutions which is most people affected by crime. We can make baseline assumptions but they wouldn’t be academically sound and I wouldn’t apply change on that basis.

The inherent problem with this method is cops are really, really bad at solving crimes. Like something around a 2% chance of solving a crime. Essentially cops only solve cases where solutions drop into their laps.

Then you have to look at a large % of people will plead guilty but say they did t do it still. Lots of info on this but jails are largely filled with poor people who have not been found guilty of a crime and can’t post bail. When you’re looking at six months in jail waiting on a trial pleading guilty and getting out today is really, really tempting.

Quote by ElCoco

Do you have anything to get anybody to believe your 2% claim?

Why do you think that red states have a higher murder rate, Cocko? Is it the guns? Lack of education? Snowflake mentality?

Quote by Magical_felix

Is it the guns? Lack of education? Snowflake mentality?

All of the above. There was a book a few years ago called "Dying of Whiteness" by Jonathan Metzl that reviewed the reasons (based on data) for the higher mortality rates of conservative and predominantly White communities.

Quote by ElCoco

Do you have anything to get anybody to believe your 2% claim?

Snopes verified.

https://www.snopes.com/news/2020/08/20/police-solve-just-2-of-all-major-crimes/

Quote by ElCoco

to

Major crimes?

Let me know when you've decided to stop moving the goalposts, and I'll take your comments seriously.

Maybe read all the thread before you comment. They never said major crimes. But the main question is why when presented with federal data murder statistics on red state vs blue state murders, why are so many of y’all trying to find ways to tilt your head and make it look different.

Over the last 10 years murder rates in red states are climbing by huge numbers.

Quote by Ironic

“This article is republished here with permission from The Conversation. This content is shared here because the topic may interest Snopes readers; it does not, however, represent the work of Snopes fact-checkers or editors.“ 

This is pedantic. Snopes shared this content because they endorse it, otherwise they wouldn't have shared it with their readers. Please stop this. I won't ask again. Thank you.

😱

• From 2016 to 2020, the two U.S. counties to experience the most gun homicides per capita were rural:* (see Figure 1)

  • Phillips County, Arkansas: 55.45 age-adjusted homicides per 100,000 people

  • Lowndes County, Alabama: 48.36 age-adjusted homicides per 100,000 people**

• From 2016 to 2020, 13 of the 20 U.S. counties with the most gun homicides per capita were rural: (see Figure 1)

  • 80 percent of these 20 counties are in states that received an “F” grade for their weak gun laws, according to Giffords Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence’s 2021 annual state scorecard rankings.

• In 2020, the total gun death rate for rural communities—when age-adjusted per 100,000 people—was 40 percent higher than it was for large metropolitan areas.

https://www.americanprogress.org/article/gun-violence-in-rural-america/

Quote by Magical_felix

😱

• From 2016 to 2020, the two U.S. counties to experience the most gun homicides per capita were rural:* (see Figure 1)

  • Phillips County, Arkansas: 55.45 age-adjusted homicides per 100,000 people

  • Lowndes County, Alabama: 48.36 age-adjusted homicides per 100,000 people**

• From 2016 to 2020, 13 of the 20 U.S. counties with the most gun homicides per capita were rural: (see Figure 1)

  • 80 percent of these 20 counties are in states that received an “F” grade for their weak gun laws, according to Giffords Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence’s 2021 annual state scorecard rankings.

• In 2020, the total gun death rate for rural communities—when age-adjusted per 100,000 people—was 40 percent higher than it was for large metropolitan areas.

https://www.americanprogress.org/article/gun-violence-in-rural-america/

You're such a meanie to rurals.